Bitcoin in 2026: the year's change and the world events that may have influenced it

Quick answer

On October 27, 2026, Bitcoin closed at US$ 80,811, down 7.6% from its December 31, 2025 close (US$ 87,496). That net figure hides a year of two extremes: the price rose 10.8% in two weeks to US$ 96,942 on January 14; fell 39.6% to US$ 58,526 on June 30; and then recovered 38.1%.

The same period brought a war between the United States, Israel and Iran, higher oil prices, a change at the head of the Federal Reserve (the Fed, the US central bank), a US interest rate hike, the defeat of the crypto market structure bill in the Senate and bitcoin sales by Strategy, a company that holds bitcoin on its balance sheet. Several of these events coincide with sharp price moves. Coinciding is not proving cause: on some days Bitcoin reacted, on others it barely moved, and none of the sources consulted attributes a fall or a rally to a single reason.

This article puts together two things that usually appear separately: the measured change in Bitcoin in 2026 and a timeline of the events that analysts and the press cited. Prices come from Bitstamp (daily closes in US dollars, UTC), retrieved on October 28, 2026; the facts come from official sources and the press, listed at the end. It is educational content, not a forecast or a recommendation.

The year's numbers in one table

Source: Cripto View calculation using daily BTC/USD closes from Bitstamp (UTC day), from Oct 1, 2025 to Oct 27, 2026; October 28 was still an open day when the data was retrieved. Scope: global, in US dollars. Retrieved Oct 28, 2026.

Month by month

Source: Cripto View calculation using daily BTC/USD closes from Bitstamp. The December 2025 close, the base for January, was US$ 87,496. Retrieved Oct 28, 2026. August's rise shows as 25.1% here because the base is the last close of July; the article on the August rally measures from the start of the month and compares it with stock markets.

The nine moments of the year

We split 2026 into phases by how the price behaved. For each one we list what the world was going through and who attributed what. When an analyst gives an explanation, it comes with the name of the source.

1. First half of January: a rise to almost US$ 97,000

Bitcoin went from US$ 87,496 to US$ 96,942 between December 31 and January 14 (+10.8%), with most of the rise on the 13th (+4.6%) and the 14th (+1.7%). On January 11, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a video that the US Department of Justice had served the bank with grand jury subpoenas tied to the renovation of its headquarters and to his 2025 Senate testimony. Powell called those reasons pretexts and said the threat of criminal charges came from the Fed setting interest rates without following the president's preferences, which revived the debate over the Fed's independence.

In a January 19 report, CoinDesk asked analysts about the rise. Greg Cipolaro, of NYDIG, named political instability, especially the tension between President Donald Trump and Powell, as the main short-term factor. The report itself also cited the end of tax-related selling at the turn of the year and a record global money supply. These are readings by analysts and the outlet, not confirmed facts about who bought.

2. January 15 to February 6: the fastest fall of the year

From the January 14 close to the February 5 close (US$ 62,795), the fall was 35.2% in 22 days. On January 28, the Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% by a 10 to 2 vote; the two dissenters, Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller, wanted a cut. On January 30, Trump named Kevin Warsh as his pick to lead the Fed. The press (NBC News, Fox News) reported a sharp drop in gold and silver that day, read by analysts as a reaction to the prospect of a Fed chair tougher on inflation. Bitcoin closed that Friday down 0.5% and fell 6.5% on Saturday, January 31.

The worst day was February 5: a 14.0% fall on the daily close, from US$ 73,000 to US$ 62,795. CoinDesk described the move as the largest one-day drop since November 8, 2022, the day of the FTX collapse. That same day, silver fell about 14%, gold more than 2% and the IGV software stock index more than 3%. The report pointed to thin liquidity as the main factor, according to Adrian Fritz of 21shares, and to Bitcoin's correlation with software stocks, without citing ETF flows or a specific macro trigger. Bloomberg described the move as forced deleveraging of bets made with borrowed money. On February 6, the price touched US$ 59,930 intraday and closed at US$ 70,531, up 12.3% from the day before.

3. February to early April: a sideways price and the war

Between February 7 and April 6, Bitcoin traded in a range of closes between US$ 64,059 and US$ 74,876. On February 28, the United States and Israel began a military campaign against Iran, according to CBS News. Bitcoin did not fall at the start of the war: it closed Saturday, February 28, up 1.7% and rose 4.6% on March 2. CoinDesk wrote in April that uncertainty around the war had kept risk assets under pressure for more than a month, without giving figures for Bitcoin.

4. April to mid-May: a ceasefire and money flowing into ETFs

On April 7, Trump announced a two-week suspension of the planned bombing of Iran, and Iran confirmed the ceasefire. According to CoinDesk, WTI crude fell more than 10% to about US$ 95 a barrel, S&P 500 futures rose 1.9% and about US$ 600 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, more than US$ 400 million of them bets on a fall. Bitcoin closed that day up 4.5%, at US$ 71,940.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs, exchange-traded funds that buy bitcoin, had net inflows of US$ 1.97 billion in April in the United States and about US$ 999 million on May 4 and 5, according to SoSoValue data cited by Cointelegraph. On May 5, Bitcoin passed US$ 81,000. The highest close of the period was US$ 82,193, on May 10, the highest since January.

5. June: a fall of almost 18% in one month

From June 1 to June 30, Bitcoin fell from US$ 71,314 to US$ 58,526 (−17.9%), and from May 10 to June 30 the fall was 28.8%. On June 1, Strategy reported that it had sold 32 bitcoins between May 26 and May 31, the company's first sale since 2022. The amount was small, about US$ 2.5 million, but symbolic for a company known for never selling. Bitcoin closed that day down 3.1% and the next day down 6.5%.

On June 23, Deutsche Bank's analysis, published by CoinDesk, listed five factors: expectations of higher US interest rates (the bank's economists expected two Fed hikes in 2026), money leaving spot ETFs (six weeks in a row, about US$ 6 billion), Strategy's sale, the shift of capital toward assets tied to artificial intelligence and concern about leveraged companies that hold bitcoin. On June 17, the Fed held rates by a 12 to 0 vote. That list is one bank's reading. The first close below US$ 60,000 came on June 25 (US$ 59,696), and the lowest of the year on June 30.

6. July and the first half of August: seven weeks stuck between US$ 60,000 and 66,000

From July 1 to August 18, closes stayed between US$ 59,963 and US$ 66,519. On July 8, after the United States and Iran exchanged attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said the agreement and ceasefire with Iran "is over, as far as I'm concerned," according to CoinDesk. WTI crude rose more than 2% that morning, and Bitcoin closed the day down 1.7%, at US$ 62,238. On July 29, the Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% by a 9 to 3 vote: Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan voted for a 0.25 percentage point hike.

7. August 19 to 21: a 21% rise in three days

Bitcoin closed at US$ 64,686 on August 18 and at US$ 78,325 on August 21 (+21.1%), with daily gains of 7.1%, 5.4% and 7.3%. On August 19, the US Treasury announced that it would at least double, from US$ 2 billion to at least US$ 4 billion per operation, the maximum size of its buybacks of long-term government bonds (10 to 20 years and 20 to 30 years), from September 9 to November 4. A buyback is when the government buys back bonds it issued earlier; the Treasury described it as liquidity support for those bonds.

The specialized press tied the rise to lower long-term yields and to the forced closing of short positions, with figures that vary between sources. That is a published explanation, not a measured fact. On August 31, Bitcoin closed at US$ 78,571, and the month ended up 25.1%.

8. September: a bill blocked, higher rates and a new jump

On September 15, the Senate rejected, by 49 votes to 50, a vote that would have opened debate on the CLARITY Act, the bill that would set the rules for the crypto market in the United States. American Banker wrote that the result probably ends the push to pass the bill in this Congress. Bitcoin closed that day down 3.3%, at US$ 75,577. The next day, the Fed raised rates by 0.25 percentage point, to 3.75% to 4%, by a 12 to 0 vote, under Chair Warsh. Bitcoin rose 0.7%.

On September 21, Bitcoin rose 6.7% and closed at US$ 86,587, the highest close after January, 13.7% above the September 16 close. CCN listed three factors: the bad news was already in the price, spot ETFs took in about US$ 999 million in a single day (the largest daily inflow in nearly a year, according to the report, which does not name the data source) and a forced closing of short positions after the price passed US$ 82,000.

9. October: sideways between US$ 80,000 and 86,500

From September 22 to October 27, closes stayed between US$ 80,006 and US$ 86,510. On October 27, Brent crude was at about US$ 113 to US$ 116 a barrel, and CBS News reported that Iran's navy said a tanker hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The Fed meeting of October 27 and 28 had no published decision when this article was researched, and the text does not cover the outcome.

Timeline: what happened and what Bitcoin did that day

Source: event dates from the sources at the end of the article; daily change calculated by Cripto View using Bitstamp BTC/USD closes (UTC day). The day of an event is not always the day of the reaction: the New York exchanges and central banks announce at different times, and Bitcoin also trades on weekends. Retrieved Oct 28, 2026.

What kinds of factors appear in this story

• Interest rates and monetary policy. Higher rates make low-risk investments, such as government bonds, more attractive and generally weigh on risky assets. In 2026 the Fed went from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4% and its members were split over a hike as early as July.
• Geopolitics and oil. War and peace deals move the oil price, expected inflation and appetite for risk. Bitcoin reacted to a ceasefire in April (+4.5%) and to the end of another in July (−1.7%), but not to the war on its first day.
• ETF flows. Funds that buy bitcoin directly became large buyers and sellers. Inflows coincided with rises in May and September, and outflows with the June fall (Deutsche Bank).
• Leverage and liquidity. Bets made with borrowed money are closed by force when the price moves against them, which speeds up the move. Liquidations were cited in February, April, August and September.
• Companies holding bitcoin. Strategy's sale of a small amount weighed more as a signal than as volume.
• Regulation. The rejection of the CLARITY Act pushed the price down on the day, but Bitcoin recovered the loss within a few days.

What the data show and what they do not allow us to conclude

The data show the size and date of each move, that the price made five moves of more than 10% within a few weeks (January to February, April to May, June, August and September) and that several important events coincided with them. They also show that on other days, such as the Powell investigation, the start of the war and the September rate hike, the price moved little or rose.

The data do not allow us to conclude:

• That an event caused a move. The explanations come from analysts and the press, in many cases from a single bank or outlet, and none of the sources consulted attributes a fall or a rise to a single cause.
• That the same event would get the same reaction again. Bitcoin ignored the start of the war and rose with a ceasefire; in July it fell moderately when another one ended.
• How much of the move came from flows that do not show up in public data, such as large individual buyers and sellers.
• What the year looked like in Brazilian reais. The value in reais also depends on the exchange rate, and this article uses only dollars.
• What comes next. The Fed's October 28 decision and the inflation and jobs data the market will watch are missing; the series ends on October 27.

Series from other sources differ a little. CoinGecko, for example, records each daily price at the start of the following day (00:00 UTC), which shifts dates by one day; the values here follow Bitstamp to stay consistent with the article on how long bear markets lasted, and the difference between the two series in closing prices is under 0.5%.

Risks and precautions

• Volatility: the price fell 14.0% in one day and rose 21.1% in three. Anyone who invests needs to withstand both sides.
• Leverage: in February, April, August and September the news cited forced liquidations; someone using borrowed money can lose everything before the price recovers.
• News in real time: the explanations for each day appear afterward, once the price is already known. It is easy to link a fact to a move just because the two happened together.
• Single sources: much of the price coverage comes from crypto outlets with different methods; ETF flow and liquidation figures vary from one source to another.
• Exchange rate risk: in Brazil, the result in reais also depends on the dollar.

Checklist for beginners

• Check the price in dollars and the source date before comparing figures.
• Ask whether the reported fact is a confirmed event or an analyst's explanation.
• Check whether the move came before or after the news.
• Decide how much of your wealth you could lose in a 40% fall without changing your life.
• Avoid leverage if you have not yet lived through a sharp fall.
• Follow the Fed calendar and inflation data as context, not as a buy or sell signal.

Frequently asked questions

How much did Bitcoin change in 2026?

Through the October 27, 2026 close, Bitcoin was down 7.6% for the year (from US$ 87,496 to US$ 80,811). Along the way it fell 39.6% from the year's highest close (US$ 96,942, on January 14) to the lowest (US$ 58,526, on June 30) and then rose 38.1%.

What was Bitcoin's worst day in 2026?

February 5: a 14.0% fall on Bitstamp's daily close, from US$ 73,000 to US$ 62,795. CoinDesk described the move as the largest one-day drop since the FTX collapse in November 2022.

Did the war with Iran bring Bitcoin down?

The data do not show that directly. Bitcoin rose 1.7% on the day the attacks began (February 28) and 4.6% two days later. It rose 4.5% with the April ceasefire and fell 1.7% when Trump declared it over in July. The relationship exists on some days, but it is not regular.

What made Bitcoin rise 21% in August?

On August 19, the US Treasury announced that it would at least double the maximum size of its long-term bond buybacks. The specialized press tied the rise to lower long-term yields and a forced closing of bets on a fall. That is a published explanation; the data show the coincidence in dates, not the cause.

Did the Fed's September rate hike hurt Bitcoin?

Not on the day: Bitcoin rose 0.7% on September 16, and CCN judged that the decision was already priced in, since the market expected the hike. Five days later, the price was 13.7% higher.

What should we expect for the rest of the year?

Nobody knows. This article describes the past through October 27. The Fed's October 28 decision and inflation data are part of the context, but there is no way to predict how the price will react.

Informational and educational content. It is not an investment recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell assets.

Sources: Bitstamp: public API, daily OHLC data for BTC/USD; Federal Reserve: FOMC statement of Jan 28, 2026; Federal Reserve: FOMC statement of Sep 16, 2026; Federal Reserve: 2026 FOMC calendar and the Jun 17 and Jul 29 statements; US Treasury: larger sizes for long-end buybacks (Aug 19, 2026); CoinDesk: the three big things that will move bitcoin in 2026 (Jan 19, 2026); CoinDesk: Bitcoin heading to worst one-day drawdown since FTX (Feb 5, 2026); Bloomberg: Bitcoin falls below $70,000 as forced deleveraging accelerates (Feb 5, 2026); NBC News: silver plummets after Trump taps Kevin Warsh for the Fed; Fox News: Trump announcement sparks losses across gold and silver; CBS News: Justice Department served the Fed with subpoenas, Powell says (Jan 11, 2026); CBS News: Iran war live updates (retrieved Oct 28, 2026); CoinDesk: Bitcoin and stock futures surge on a two-week ceasefire (Apr 8, 2026); Cointelegraph: Bitcoin ETFs extend rally as two-day inflows near $1 billion (May 6, 2026); Bitcoin Magazine: Strategy sells 32 bitcoin, first sale since 2022; CoinDesk: Strategy sold bitcoin for the first time since 2022 (Jun 1, 2026); CoinDesk: drop below $60,000 signals Fed, ETF and AI pressures, per Deutsche Bank (Jun 23, 2026); CoinDesk: Bitcoin under pressure as US-Iran escalation lifts oil (Jul 8, 2026); Forbes: Bitcoin approaches $70,000 after Treasury announces buyback expansion (Aug 19, 2026); American Banker: crypto market structure bill fails in Senate vote, 49-50 (Sep 15, 2026); CCN, via Yahoo Finance: Bitcoin surges past $87,000 after CLARITY Act failure (Sep 25, 2026). Retrieved Oct 28, 2026.